The street car development / construction was key to the demise of the vibrant merchant community around SW 1st and Oak, right? What lessons were learned so that doesn’t repeat itself in The Nob Hill and Slabtown areas that still have life and potential?
Anyone else getting tired of the government here doing everything in their power to ruin businesses and livability, failing to provide adequate levels of even the most basic services, while at the same time ignoring neighborhood/citizen input and spending billions of dollars on pet projects no one wants? Is there a money trail to be followed here, surely someone is getting paid to approve tracks to nowhere.
We need a major clean out of city/county/state positions next year in the election. NW Portland especially has just become a dumping ground for idiotic policy.
Anyone who thinks the Trump administration will fund European-style urban rail in the world ‘Antifa’ capital, Portland, to advance progressive urbanism has been gobbling gummies.
The NW Examiner’s detailed examination of the proposed Montgomery Park streetcar extension underscores what many of us already feel in our bones: Portland is again marching toward a mega-project whose costs and assumptions seem detached from reality. But there are several additional concerns—ground-level and well-documented—that deserve equal attention.
1. A Broken Promise on NW 23rd—And Residents Left Dodging Potholes for Years to Come
During my 2024 campaign for Portland City Council, a high-level PBOT official told me something that stunned me at the time and should alarm every Northwest resident now: PBOT would do nothing to fix the pavement on NW 23rd Avenue between Northrup and Thurman until the new streetcar extension was completed.
No interim repairs. No basic maintenance. Just years of waiting.
Sadly, and to the surprise of no one familiar with PBOT’s project-driven culture, this appears to be exactly what has transpired. Northwest Portland residents and other Nw 23rd users continue to navigate dangerous potholes, including those in crosswalks that pose particular risks to pedestrians with mobility issues.
We tell people to walk more, bike more, shop local, and ride transit—yet the most basic requirement for any of those activities is a functional street. Instead, PBOT is letting it crumble in anticipation of a speculative, multi-year, multi-hundred-million-dollar buildout.
If you want proof that this project is driving priorities rather than community need, look no further than the literal pavement under our feet.
2.. A $190 Million Project—At $292 Million Per Mile for .65 Miles- And That’s Just the Opening Bid.
The NW Examiner correctly highlights escalating costs, but the raw math deserves sharper emphasis:
$190 million for .65 miles.
That’s $292 million per mile.
This would be eye-opening even if we had a long history of PBOT and regional agencies delivering large capital projects on time and on budget. But we don’t. Not even close.
The pattern is consistent and predictable: initial projections deliberately lowball costs to secure public approval, then reality intrudes during actual construction.
We have recent case studies:
• The Interstate Bridge Replacement project, whose budget estimates have ballooned wildly long before any shovels hit dirt.
• The Rose Quarter freeway expansion, which has seen projections rise by the hundreds of millions with no end in sight.
Given this history of escalating costs, it is difficult to imagine the Montgomery Park extension coming in anywhere near the $190 million estimate. Portlanders should be prepared for the real number to climb dramatically.
Where will those additional funds come from? Almost certainly from property owners through an expanded Local Improvement District, from transportation dollars desperately needed for basic maintenance, or from other deferred public services.
3. Fantasy Ridership Projections Untethered from Reality
Perhaps most troubling is Portland Streetcar Inc.’s stubborn refusal to revise ridership projections despite radical changes in the circumstances that supposedly justified this route.
Executive Director Dan Bower admits that projections are based on zoning potential rather than actual development plans or market realities. When the spectacular vision for Montgomery Park collapsed, with Unico Properties selling the site for just 13% of what it paid, the response was essentially: nothing to see here, our models remain unchanged.
This approach borders on magical thinking. Bower states that ridership is “modeled on adopted zoning” and therefore projections “remain static” despite the deflation of development plans. But zoning represents possibility, not certainty. The fact that land could theoretically support 2,000 housing units doesn’t mean those units will materialize, especially when the primary property changed hands at a 87% loss and the new owner has announced no development plans whatsoever.
Montgomery Park’s grand vision has evaporated. Yet official projections remain the same.
Real planning would adjust projections based on actual market conditions, property owner intentions, and observed development patterns. Instead, we have a faith-based approach: if we build the tracks, surely the density will come.
When the financial foundation of a project depends on ignoring present-day reality, the public deserves to be skeptical.
The Wrong Project at the Wrong Time
Portland is at a fiscal crossroads. Basic street maintenance is underfunded. Pedestrian safety improvements languish unfunded. Local businesses are struggling. And Northwest Portland residents are literally tripping over potholes while PBOT promises salvation “after the streetcar arrives.”
A responsible transportation agenda would:
• Fix NW 23rd now—not in ten years.
• Prioritize safety, maintenance, and reliability over ribbon-cutting megaprojects.
• Update ridership assumptions to reflect real conditions, not legacy spreadsheets.
• Demand financial accountability before committing to another nine-figure gamble.
Instead, we are sprinting toward Montgomery Park—or bust.
If this project proceeds on its current trajectory, “bust” may be the more accurate destination.
PBOT isn't interested in transportation; they're a social-engineering outfit with an overlay of handing out freebies to developers. And somewhere in the mix is handouts to the bike lobby, which defines the term, "Punching above its weight."
PBOT has no interest in maintaining our grubby roads; whatever discourages drivers from driving is their main mission.
Anyone familiar with the neighborhoods targeted by the latest PBOT/Metro fantasy (basically, connecting nothing to nothing) knows that the area is full of high-priced condos not selling and a major "cram 'em" apartment block that's not being built. Prospects are dim in a city with 15,000 vacant "affordable" units and higher-priced apartments in far more fashionable neighborhoods giving away goodies for signing leases. Checked the population flowcharts lately? And even Columbia Sportswear is thinking of moving to a low-tax clime.
Our city council is far more interested in fighting Trump than in protecting taxpayers--and, besides, the trolley is socialism in its purest form. They have 'em in Vienna, after all!
First of all, I have no dog in this fight. I have no strong opinion pro or con. Instead, I mean to clear the air over what appears to be a lot misunderstanding and mis-assumption here. If anyone assumes that local government is "for" the people, you misinterpret which people they are for.
Let us not forget that everything the various development factions herein are doing is exactly what has been done in the past. This is the way urban development works:
1) insider knowledge of private property sale is exploited by leading local investors - leading to purchase of property suitable for massive profitable redevelopment;
2) zoning and arterial changes required to carry the proposed new project, tenants and visitors are secured by private politicking and arranged over time - usual un-monitored by those locally opposed to said changes;
3) the redevelopment then begins with the support of municipal governments, agencies and leaders - in order to secure new and increased property tax, business income taxes and fees for same - while creating increased employment and residential homes for others.
All this while in some instances improving the blight of the area which suffered decline over the previous years.
This was the process of the The Brewery Blocks, The Pearl, the Central Eastside District and many more. The 20 year grab and conversion of un-reinforced masonry apartments into salable condos in NW Portland worked in similar fashion - minus arterial improvement and ignoring the existing commercial building codes for structural reinforcement of these brick structures. It is most recently occurring in the empty Oregonian blocks development and soon to be Lloyd Center redevelopment.
I am Portland and NW alphabet block native. No one here should forget that Montgomery Wards closed retail operations at this store in 1976, operating only warehouse and mail-order fulfillment there. In 1982 they opened a new warehouse in the Rivergate area, laid off 500 people in NW and converted the remainder operation to a very small clearance outlet store. Two years later and knowing the continued withdrawal of the store from that building, the Naito Brothers negotiated and finally purchased the building in 1984 under their Norcrest China company. It's anyone's guess if any other potential buyers were courted or gave interest in this acquisition, but needless to say, the Naitos wisely saw the building's decay and potential rehabilitation so they acted before others did or might have. (To be fair, they had practiced this concept at the Olds, Wortman & King department store - now the Galleria.)
Bill, shrewd as he was personable, understood a need to alter the arterial feeds leading to this acquisition, their future plans would significantly increase traffic density leading to and around the building. Bill saw to it that Sam take a seat on the state ODOT committee overseeing the final design and placement of the planned I-405 freeway. It is not by accident, but Naito design that the brothers saw to it that the two west-bound lanes emptied onto Nicolai, exactly 4 blocks from and feeding direct access to their planned development.
Knowing all this, is it really any surprise what is happening here? Everything occurring here is totally predictable. And, I dare say, unstoppable. Opponents do not have the financial or political clout to kill this latest development project. And, I am not certain, that halting this process serves the greater good (though I am open to hearing truly valid arguments.)
"The recent approvals include the Portland City Council’s adoption of the route and associated zoning changes last December."
It would appear that the industrial sanctuary limitations on these properties have been, over sufficient un-monitored time, quietly lifted. This was to be expected and the investors certainly anticipated this.
The Esco properties are designated EX and EG1
The Montgomery Park buildings are zoned EX and EG1
The Cairn Pacific Holdings south of Nicolai between 29th and 30th as zoned EX
Table 140-1 of Chapter 33.140 clearly shows that EX allows for residential development and EG1 allows same with some limitations. EX allows for a large variety of Retail Service, Office and Commercial development, some with conditions or limitations. And EG1 allows for same, with a few more limitations. In short, the City has paved the way, removing the industrial sanctuary restrictions to allow these developers to profit from their speculative purchases.
Time and personal politicking from these leading financial citizens has seen to it that the City planning department toss the failed sanctuary zone and approve mixed-use development proposed in order to increase taxable business holdings and incomes there.
Now in case, I am thought to be insensitive using the term "leading financial citizens." Let us all understand who and what money is behind this spectacular gamble. It certainly serves a great number of speculation investment properties owned by giant business leaders of Portland.
Noel Johnson and his partners of CAIRN PACIFIC own the properties at Nicloai, between 29th and 30th.
Jordan Menashe and his financial partners now own all of the MONTGOMERY PARK properties
And the following parties were the largest contingent of speculators purchasing the ESCO PROPERTIES:
Real Estate Investor and big Pearl District developer - Al Solheim
President of Walsh Construction - Bob Walsh
Principal of Cairn Pacific and Central Eastside district developer - Noel Johnson
Retired President and Vice Chairman of FIB, now commercial real estate investor, developer - Bob Ames
President of Calbag Metals (in 5 states), co-founder Shredding Systems and Transformer Technologies an former member of the Portland Planning Commission - Warren Rosenfeld
(Now Deceased) Real-estate investor - Roger Burpee
Real Estate investment manager for the Burpee family's multi-state holdings and partner/owner of Macadam Forbes RE partner/owner - Greg Burpee
Needless to say, these are some of Portland's big financial, contracting and development players.
Several have immediate financial gains in seeing the developments hire their construction, RE sales and leasing companies for much needed services. And it does not hurt that Calbag owner, Warren Rosenfeld, was once was part of and has/had the ear of the Portland Planning commission staff. Pretend all one will, my imagination assumes that this bunch are well-connected in seeing that sanctuary limitations disappear over time and zoning and arterial changes (like streetcar) feed the needs of their investments.
"The streetcar route would extend from NW Northrup to Roosevelt Street, then turn westward toward Montgomery Park at Northwest 27th Avenue. The route, however, is unlikely to change no matter what citizens say, according to Bower, in that the “locally preferred option” has been approved unanimously at every local jurisdiction."
Well, yes. Are you with me yet? This is designed to service all of the old Esco Industrial sanctuary property, the ailing Montgomery Park properties and west adjacent properties, bordering Nicolai west of 29th. The route, unless snaking around the Menashe properties wedged between 26th and 27th, would raze the buildings there in order to give direct access to Montgomery Park. Suddenly you can see how non-performing, parking buildings are better removed and new leasable spaces constructed in their place - while giving the streetcar a direct path to the Park building
"Unico Properties’ sale of Montgomery Park last year for 13% of what it paid for the 18-acre site only five years earlier. Local buyer Menashe Properties has yet to announce any plans for the site. If the proposed urban center and resulting ridership justified the Montgomery Park destination, what is the consequence of that vision deflating? If it remains primarily an office facility, potential growth would be more limited."
Do not ignore the land and buildings not holding offices. The Cairn Pacific Properties are all undeveloped, the Esco Properties are largely undeveloped (old structures razed) and the M.Park properties have a lot of undeveloped land including buildings that provide little to no cash flow. They can go and be replaced by incoming producing products for sale (condos) or lease (retail and office.)
As for the Menashe properties, buying low, when vacancy and rental cash flow is in crisis then turning around tenancy to improve the cash flow, this will certainly return the holding to prior value and/or increased values. If lease successful, that will return a very fine investment. But the real investment profit is in developing the non-cash producing lands adjacent the main office building.
“Ridership is modeled on adopted zoning, and the zoning at that site has not changed between ownership transfers, so our future projections remain static,” Bower said."
I have no idea what he means here, but the City has clearly changed the zoning terms so residential and retail restrictions on these sites are lifted - allowing new uses and new users to take advantage of the proposed transit system.
"Owners of the former ESCO 23-acre site have made no moves to develop seven years after the purchase. PBOT and the Bureau of Planning & Sustainability give the same explanation. Because the 30-plus acres in the Montgomery Park Area Plan have been rezoned to allow residential and a wider spectrum of commercial uses, future growth can be counted on."
Well, it seems obvious they have been patiently waiting for the industrial sanctuary restrictions to evaporate, waiting for financing loan rates to drop and likely waiting, as other developers in the area have (See Joe's Cellar development) for the urban residential sale and office rental market demands to strengthen. And remember, folks, who carries principal debt on these holdings in the end? These folk will tell you it's REITs and the big life insurance firms, they are principal holders of most of these developments/ how do you think they are doing these days, with so many urban commercial buildings in tenancy and lease crisis? Not too well, which is why your premiums are going up for home and auto. There is good reason why Unico needed to divest itself of the M Park properties - they need to show quarterly earnings not bleed losses. So lets not get stupid about why these developers are slow to take advantage of this development - the market needs to correct itself - to tip the odds in greater favor of these speculators. It won't hurt to use the time to arrange all the municipal agencies be in accorod with the final plans too.
“Over the next 20 years, within the core project area, more than 2,000 new households, and hundreds of new jobs could be accommodated. The existing transportation network would be unable to support this future growth if residents, workers and visitors travel by driving alone. The plan assumed the streetcar extension would draw an additional 3,300 daily riders, a 60% increase over existing ridership on the North-South streetcar line."
That's been the plan for 7 years. This is no surprise whatsoever. The developers count on citizens to have a short memory and get easily distracted - "squirrel" - so they can fulfill their visions unseen by the public. Is this really still a surprise to all of you? Can you not see that history is in constant cycle of repeating itself? These are not new ideas and new plots, just different conspirators. Sooner or later Jordan Schnitzer or Greg Goodman will be doing the same thing - when the market causes sufficient demand.
I think the difference in this case is that there no longer seems to be any loose plan—or any real commitment from developers—to actually build or revitalize anything if this streetcar extension goes in. We already have new apartment buildings and storefronts that they can’t fill. Whatever plans supposedly justified the project have essentially fallen apart.
Montgomery Park isn’t Siberia. It’s already served by existing roads and bus lines. I worked there for several years and during its heyday that area was humming and MP was at capacity - no one ever complained about not being able to access it. Does forcing a streetcar meaningfully improve that area? For millions of dollars and very little added coverage, I would argue it does not. Homeless overnight shelter inhabitants seem to be the primary riders of the Northrup line as it is, since the city also refuses to meaningfully address public transportation safety.
I would hope voters here are maybe finally tired of a city government that behaves as though our tax dollars are unlimited while simultaneously claiming there’s “no money” for basic services like road repair, policing, and park maintenance. The level of financial liberty being taken—especially given how little clout the city has left to attract new business or keep its residents within county lines—is completely out of proportion to reality. This entire plan feels not only disconnected from what the “people” want, it feels disconnected from having any chance at success.
"We already have new apartment buildings and storefronts that they can’t fill. Whatever plans supposedly justified the project have essentially fallen apart."
I am a Realtor, so admittedly my comments come from both a place of educated business and prejudice. I'll try to keep the latter in check.
*The demand for new urban residential projects has stumbled a bit, with a recent population exodus out of Multnomah County. Still, all projections (see HBA for example) want to suggest that we are chronically short of apartments to meet current and projected demands. (Forget that the City wants increased density, to increase property tax rolls and income.) This shortage is due, in part, to a loss of skilled construction laborers, a sharp increase in the cost of building goods (due to shortages and tariffs), a current shortage of some building materials (due to tariffs), a higher cost of interim construction financing, a shortage of take-out lenders willing to assume the finished project when completed and certainly some continued concerns about existing core area vacancy rates. And then, let us not get started on the general developer disdain for the City's "work-at-home" plans examination and permitting process, the Draconian and restrictive construction codes, the exorbitant cost of system connections and the unilateral demand for a percentage of all units to become affordable housing. These all exacerbate the timing of development plans too.
*And while residential units are allowed in these zones, it must be with a mix of commercial - and commercial property tenancy in the core area has been extremely slow to recover. (The Oregonian blocks is a fine example. Again, so is the Joe's Cellar development sitting, what, 6-7 years dormant?) With Pearl and Slabtown projects largely completed and competing for tenants, holding back on adding new units in NW Portland is prudent. I might add that it remains to be seen whether mixed residential properties will draw tenancy built at the very edge of NW Portland, slammed against the decaying industrial sanctuary north of Nicolai. The former lure to live in the alphabet blocks may not really extend to this outer edge. Do we know this to be certain?
*When investors have, what was it $33mil-$34mil?, invested in the Esco properties, they are not going to allow it to "fall apart." They will wisely do as much due diligence (pre-construction) planning as they can without investing a lot of construction dollars into the project until the market for construction and leasing or sales, improves. They've got a $250,000 engineering feasibility study publicly funded, so they are moving forward with results they want to achieve, without costing them much. Equally, Menashe's company can focus on improving tenancy in a nearly vacant office building for the short term, while making plans for the development of the outlying properties adjacent the main building.
I don't see anything fallen apart. Rather things are proceeding slower than they may have wished, but proceeding all the same.
"Montgomery Park isn’t Siberia."
*JW, I remember it well and concur. The existing office building itself seemed to be able to handle daily demands effortlessly. This was as the Naito's and their traffic engineers envisioned it.
*However, as the article stated, the core development area (which is three giant tracts as I previously described) are expected to add 2,000 new households. That's in addition to all the added commercial space that you should expect will be developed - as required of the zoning code. So ignoring the existing return of M Park offices to vibrant tenancy - which the arterials can handle - we are talking about over 5 acres of developable land just on the M Park block located between 26th and 27th. That can be expected to become thousands of feet of leasable office space. The combined Esco tract is over 15 acres of land that must, by zoning law, also contain a substantial blend of office floors. Add to that at least two more acres in the tract owned by Cairn Pacific and you must now consider that traffic densities occurring from development of these 20 acres - much which must be commercial - will, if their leasing plans are fruitful, absolutely sky-rocket in excess of the former M Park site uses. Just like Bill and Sam, these investors are seeing to it that the City serves their proposed properties with increased mass transit services, partially funded with public dollars.
"I would hope voters here are maybe finally tired of a city government that behaves as though our tax dollars are unlimited while simultaneously claiming there’s “no money” for basic services like road repair, policing, and park maintenance."
Here the sad difference between us is that I no longer have faith in "the voters." The majority are not sufficiently educated to understand, by example, what a Local Improvement District is or how it operates. They are largely uninformed (as their ignorance is needed for developers and City to get changes past them.) They are largely ignorant and uninformed because life priorities do not allow them time to educate themselves and become informed. And they are distracted by both the demands of daily life and their own personal wants and needs - which they rarely see as jeopardized by these unknown or poorly understood events. The satirical pessimist in me simply sees that for change to occur, the powerful must keep the silent majority in the dark. And the realist in me simply sees that daily struggle of the silent majority does not provide them time or sufficient worry, to seek to make a difference.
As he well knows, I appreciate all Allan does to illuminate these things. But, I have very little faith that it can result in significantly altering the plans of the rich and powerful. I do not think the burdensome impact these future developments will have on the local community is sufficient to raise a silent majority reaction that could force, by public opinion, these developments be curtailed or substantially altered. It would appear the vast majority of voters will be unaffected by it all.
Thanks to all who commented. The discussion has been broadened considerably, giving readers/citizens a better understanding of how things work--and possibly a better chance to influence their community.
If the goal is to move people, why not work with Tri-Met to create a new bus line that follows where the tracks would be laid? Seems less expensive and more flexible. I ride the street car on a regular basis between PSU area and Good Sam and would prefer if it was a bus route. It always seems like the street car was nothing more than nostalgia for the past and a way for tourists to get around. As a regular mode of public transport, the street car is not very reliable.
Buses are indeed more flexible, especially as development occurs. What happens if we destroy traffic on NW 23rd (double tracking might be a lot worse than the potholes, fwiw) and nothing gets developed for years and years, or else it proceeeds in a different manner than predicted, resulting in no need for frequent streetcar transit?
As a lifelong "student" of rail transit, I judge the plan to be sound. Rail transit is often built before housing and shopping, as an attractor. Rail systems are attractive: 60% of Minneapolis riders simpley leave their cars home; they are new to transit. A new bus line, even rapid, is favorec, but only because of low initial costs. Nobody exults at a new bus. Our original Streetcar was part of the Pearl, and I think developer funds helped. It also minimzed costs by not acceepting any Federal funds, enabling purchase of inexpensive, standard Inekon Czech light rail vehicles - ones to be replaced, tho' electric rail vehicles never wear out! Similarly, developers paid for the Max extension to the airport. Today, a ride on the southern Denver Light rail ends in desert, with rapid, dense development seen nearby. In NYC, the el extended into farrm land that later became densely populated Queens. As to the sorry, second world, condition of NW 23rd pavement, we have lived here 20 years, and the plan is always just around the corner. Postponing it, or doing it now and installing the rail before other infrastructure will minimize costs. As to the our new buy-American streetcars, readers should be aware of their weight, fully 7 TONS heavier than our originals. So much for CO2 minimization...
The street car development / construction was key to the demise of the vibrant merchant community around SW 1st and Oak, right? What lessons were learned so that doesn’t repeat itself in The Nob Hill and Slabtown areas that still have life and potential?
Anyone else getting tired of the government here doing everything in their power to ruin businesses and livability, failing to provide adequate levels of even the most basic services, while at the same time ignoring neighborhood/citizen input and spending billions of dollars on pet projects no one wants? Is there a money trail to be followed here, surely someone is getting paid to approve tracks to nowhere.
We need a major clean out of city/county/state positions next year in the election. NW Portland especially has just become a dumping ground for idiotic policy.
Anyone who thinks the Trump administration will fund European-style urban rail in the world ‘Antifa’ capital, Portland, to advance progressive urbanism has been gobbling gummies.
To Montgomery Park—or Bust? A Respondent’s View
The NW Examiner’s detailed examination of the proposed Montgomery Park streetcar extension underscores what many of us already feel in our bones: Portland is again marching toward a mega-project whose costs and assumptions seem detached from reality. But there are several additional concerns—ground-level and well-documented—that deserve equal attention.
1. A Broken Promise on NW 23rd—And Residents Left Dodging Potholes for Years to Come
During my 2024 campaign for Portland City Council, a high-level PBOT official told me something that stunned me at the time and should alarm every Northwest resident now: PBOT would do nothing to fix the pavement on NW 23rd Avenue between Northrup and Thurman until the new streetcar extension was completed.
No interim repairs. No basic maintenance. Just years of waiting.
Sadly, and to the surprise of no one familiar with PBOT’s project-driven culture, this appears to be exactly what has transpired. Northwest Portland residents and other Nw 23rd users continue to navigate dangerous potholes, including those in crosswalks that pose particular risks to pedestrians with mobility issues.
We tell people to walk more, bike more, shop local, and ride transit—yet the most basic requirement for any of those activities is a functional street. Instead, PBOT is letting it crumble in anticipation of a speculative, multi-year, multi-hundred-million-dollar buildout.
If you want proof that this project is driving priorities rather than community need, look no further than the literal pavement under our feet.
2.. A $190 Million Project—At $292 Million Per Mile for .65 Miles- And That’s Just the Opening Bid.
The NW Examiner correctly highlights escalating costs, but the raw math deserves sharper emphasis:
$190 million for .65 miles.
That’s $292 million per mile.
This would be eye-opening even if we had a long history of PBOT and regional agencies delivering large capital projects on time and on budget. But we don’t. Not even close.
The pattern is consistent and predictable: initial projections deliberately lowball costs to secure public approval, then reality intrudes during actual construction.
We have recent case studies:
• The Interstate Bridge Replacement project, whose budget estimates have ballooned wildly long before any shovels hit dirt.
• The Rose Quarter freeway expansion, which has seen projections rise by the hundreds of millions with no end in sight.
Given this history of escalating costs, it is difficult to imagine the Montgomery Park extension coming in anywhere near the $190 million estimate. Portlanders should be prepared for the real number to climb dramatically.
Where will those additional funds come from? Almost certainly from property owners through an expanded Local Improvement District, from transportation dollars desperately needed for basic maintenance, or from other deferred public services.
3. Fantasy Ridership Projections Untethered from Reality
Perhaps most troubling is Portland Streetcar Inc.’s stubborn refusal to revise ridership projections despite radical changes in the circumstances that supposedly justified this route.
Executive Director Dan Bower admits that projections are based on zoning potential rather than actual development plans or market realities. When the spectacular vision for Montgomery Park collapsed, with Unico Properties selling the site for just 13% of what it paid, the response was essentially: nothing to see here, our models remain unchanged.
This approach borders on magical thinking. Bower states that ridership is “modeled on adopted zoning” and therefore projections “remain static” despite the deflation of development plans. But zoning represents possibility, not certainty. The fact that land could theoretically support 2,000 housing units doesn’t mean those units will materialize, especially when the primary property changed hands at a 87% loss and the new owner has announced no development plans whatsoever.
Montgomery Park’s grand vision has evaporated. Yet official projections remain the same.
Real planning would adjust projections based on actual market conditions, property owner intentions, and observed development patterns. Instead, we have a faith-based approach: if we build the tracks, surely the density will come.
When the financial foundation of a project depends on ignoring present-day reality, the public deserves to be skeptical.
The Wrong Project at the Wrong Time
Portland is at a fiscal crossroads. Basic street maintenance is underfunded. Pedestrian safety improvements languish unfunded. Local businesses are struggling. And Northwest Portland residents are literally tripping over potholes while PBOT promises salvation “after the streetcar arrives.”
A responsible transportation agenda would:
• Fix NW 23rd now—not in ten years.
• Prioritize safety, maintenance, and reliability over ribbon-cutting megaprojects.
• Update ridership assumptions to reflect real conditions, not legacy spreadsheets.
• Demand financial accountability before committing to another nine-figure gamble.
Instead, we are sprinting toward Montgomery Park—or bust.
If this project proceeds on its current trajectory, “bust” may be the more accurate destination.
Makes sense, unlike this project
Thanks for verifying what I already suspected: that the City is blackmailing us on NW 23rd re: the potholes.
PBOT isn't interested in transportation; they're a social-engineering outfit with an overlay of handing out freebies to developers. And somewhere in the mix is handouts to the bike lobby, which defines the term, "Punching above its weight."
PBOT has no interest in maintaining our grubby roads; whatever discourages drivers from driving is their main mission.
Anyone familiar with the neighborhoods targeted by the latest PBOT/Metro fantasy (basically, connecting nothing to nothing) knows that the area is full of high-priced condos not selling and a major "cram 'em" apartment block that's not being built. Prospects are dim in a city with 15,000 vacant "affordable" units and higher-priced apartments in far more fashionable neighborhoods giving away goodies for signing leases. Checked the population flowcharts lately? And even Columbia Sportswear is thinking of moving to a low-tax clime.
Our city council is far more interested in fighting Trump than in protecting taxpayers--and, besides, the trolley is socialism in its purest form. They have 'em in Vienna, after all!
First of all, I have no dog in this fight. I have no strong opinion pro or con. Instead, I mean to clear the air over what appears to be a lot misunderstanding and mis-assumption here. If anyone assumes that local government is "for" the people, you misinterpret which people they are for.
Let us not forget that everything the various development factions herein are doing is exactly what has been done in the past. This is the way urban development works:
1) insider knowledge of private property sale is exploited by leading local investors - leading to purchase of property suitable for massive profitable redevelopment;
2) zoning and arterial changes required to carry the proposed new project, tenants and visitors are secured by private politicking and arranged over time - usual un-monitored by those locally opposed to said changes;
3) the redevelopment then begins with the support of municipal governments, agencies and leaders - in order to secure new and increased property tax, business income taxes and fees for same - while creating increased employment and residential homes for others.
All this while in some instances improving the blight of the area which suffered decline over the previous years.
This was the process of the The Brewery Blocks, The Pearl, the Central Eastside District and many more. The 20 year grab and conversion of un-reinforced masonry apartments into salable condos in NW Portland worked in similar fashion - minus arterial improvement and ignoring the existing commercial building codes for structural reinforcement of these brick structures. It is most recently occurring in the empty Oregonian blocks development and soon to be Lloyd Center redevelopment.
I am Portland and NW alphabet block native. No one here should forget that Montgomery Wards closed retail operations at this store in 1976, operating only warehouse and mail-order fulfillment there. In 1982 they opened a new warehouse in the Rivergate area, laid off 500 people in NW and converted the remainder operation to a very small clearance outlet store. Two years later and knowing the continued withdrawal of the store from that building, the Naito Brothers negotiated and finally purchased the building in 1984 under their Norcrest China company. It's anyone's guess if any other potential buyers were courted or gave interest in this acquisition, but needless to say, the Naitos wisely saw the building's decay and potential rehabilitation so they acted before others did or might have. (To be fair, they had practiced this concept at the Olds, Wortman & King department store - now the Galleria.)
Bill, shrewd as he was personable, understood a need to alter the arterial feeds leading to this acquisition, their future plans would significantly increase traffic density leading to and around the building. Bill saw to it that Sam take a seat on the state ODOT committee overseeing the final design and placement of the planned I-405 freeway. It is not by accident, but Naito design that the brothers saw to it that the two west-bound lanes emptied onto Nicolai, exactly 4 blocks from and feeding direct access to their planned development.
Knowing all this, is it really any surprise what is happening here? Everything occurring here is totally predictable. And, I dare say, unstoppable. Opponents do not have the financial or political clout to kill this latest development project. And, I am not certain, that halting this process serves the greater good (though I am open to hearing truly valid arguments.)
"The recent approvals include the Portland City Council’s adoption of the route and associated zoning changes last December."
It would appear that the industrial sanctuary limitations on these properties have been, over sufficient un-monitored time, quietly lifted. This was to be expected and the investors certainly anticipated this.
The Esco properties are designated EX and EG1
The Montgomery Park buildings are zoned EX and EG1
The Cairn Pacific Holdings south of Nicolai between 29th and 30th as zoned EX
Table 140-1 of Chapter 33.140 clearly shows that EX allows for residential development and EG1 allows same with some limitations. EX allows for a large variety of Retail Service, Office and Commercial development, some with conditions or limitations. And EG1 allows for same, with a few more limitations. In short, the City has paved the way, removing the industrial sanctuary restrictions to allow these developers to profit from their speculative purchases.
Time and personal politicking from these leading financial citizens has seen to it that the City planning department toss the failed sanctuary zone and approve mixed-use development proposed in order to increase taxable business holdings and incomes there.
Now in case, I am thought to be insensitive using the term "leading financial citizens." Let us all understand who and what money is behind this spectacular gamble. It certainly serves a great number of speculation investment properties owned by giant business leaders of Portland.
Noel Johnson and his partners of CAIRN PACIFIC own the properties at Nicloai, between 29th and 30th.
Jordan Menashe and his financial partners now own all of the MONTGOMERY PARK properties
And the following parties were the largest contingent of speculators purchasing the ESCO PROPERTIES:
Real Estate Investor and big Pearl District developer - Al Solheim
President of Walsh Construction - Bob Walsh
Principal of Cairn Pacific and Central Eastside district developer - Noel Johnson
Retired President and Vice Chairman of FIB, now commercial real estate investor, developer - Bob Ames
President of Calbag Metals (in 5 states), co-founder Shredding Systems and Transformer Technologies an former member of the Portland Planning Commission - Warren Rosenfeld
(Now Deceased) Real-estate investor - Roger Burpee
Real Estate investment manager for the Burpee family's multi-state holdings and partner/owner of Macadam Forbes RE partner/owner - Greg Burpee
Part I - continued
Part II
Needless to say, these are some of Portland's big financial, contracting and development players.
Several have immediate financial gains in seeing the developments hire their construction, RE sales and leasing companies for much needed services. And it does not hurt that Calbag owner, Warren Rosenfeld, was once was part of and has/had the ear of the Portland Planning commission staff. Pretend all one will, my imagination assumes that this bunch are well-connected in seeing that sanctuary limitations disappear over time and zoning and arterial changes (like streetcar) feed the needs of their investments.
"The streetcar route would extend from NW Northrup to Roosevelt Street, then turn westward toward Montgomery Park at Northwest 27th Avenue. The route, however, is unlikely to change no matter what citizens say, according to Bower, in that the “locally preferred option” has been approved unanimously at every local jurisdiction."
Well, yes. Are you with me yet? This is designed to service all of the old Esco Industrial sanctuary property, the ailing Montgomery Park properties and west adjacent properties, bordering Nicolai west of 29th. The route, unless snaking around the Menashe properties wedged between 26th and 27th, would raze the buildings there in order to give direct access to Montgomery Park. Suddenly you can see how non-performing, parking buildings are better removed and new leasable spaces constructed in their place - while giving the streetcar a direct path to the Park building
"Unico Properties’ sale of Montgomery Park last year for 13% of what it paid for the 18-acre site only five years earlier. Local buyer Menashe Properties has yet to announce any plans for the site. If the proposed urban center and resulting ridership justified the Montgomery Park destination, what is the consequence of that vision deflating? If it remains primarily an office facility, potential growth would be more limited."
Do not ignore the land and buildings not holding offices. The Cairn Pacific Properties are all undeveloped, the Esco Properties are largely undeveloped (old structures razed) and the M.Park properties have a lot of undeveloped land including buildings that provide little to no cash flow. They can go and be replaced by incoming producing products for sale (condos) or lease (retail and office.)
As for the Menashe properties, buying low, when vacancy and rental cash flow is in crisis then turning around tenancy to improve the cash flow, this will certainly return the holding to prior value and/or increased values. If lease successful, that will return a very fine investment. But the real investment profit is in developing the non-cash producing lands adjacent the main office building.
“Ridership is modeled on adopted zoning, and the zoning at that site has not changed between ownership transfers, so our future projections remain static,” Bower said."
I have no idea what he means here, but the City has clearly changed the zoning terms so residential and retail restrictions on these sites are lifted - allowing new uses and new users to take advantage of the proposed transit system.
"Owners of the former ESCO 23-acre site have made no moves to develop seven years after the purchase. PBOT and the Bureau of Planning & Sustainability give the same explanation. Because the 30-plus acres in the Montgomery Park Area Plan have been rezoned to allow residential and a wider spectrum of commercial uses, future growth can be counted on."
Well, it seems obvious they have been patiently waiting for the industrial sanctuary restrictions to evaporate, waiting for financing loan rates to drop and likely waiting, as other developers in the area have (See Joe's Cellar development) for the urban residential sale and office rental market demands to strengthen. And remember, folks, who carries principal debt on these holdings in the end? These folk will tell you it's REITs and the big life insurance firms, they are principal holders of most of these developments/ how do you think they are doing these days, with so many urban commercial buildings in tenancy and lease crisis? Not too well, which is why your premiums are going up for home and auto. There is good reason why Unico needed to divest itself of the M Park properties - they need to show quarterly earnings not bleed losses. So lets not get stupid about why these developers are slow to take advantage of this development - the market needs to correct itself - to tip the odds in greater favor of these speculators. It won't hurt to use the time to arrange all the municipal agencies be in accorod with the final plans too.
“Over the next 20 years, within the core project area, more than 2,000 new households, and hundreds of new jobs could be accommodated. The existing transportation network would be unable to support this future growth if residents, workers and visitors travel by driving alone. The plan assumed the streetcar extension would draw an additional 3,300 daily riders, a 60% increase over existing ridership on the North-South streetcar line."
That's been the plan for 7 years. This is no surprise whatsoever. The developers count on citizens to have a short memory and get easily distracted - "squirrel" - so they can fulfill their visions unseen by the public. Is this really still a surprise to all of you? Can you not see that history is in constant cycle of repeating itself? These are not new ideas and new plots, just different conspirators. Sooner or later Jordan Schnitzer or Greg Goodman will be doing the same thing - when the market causes sufficient demand.
I think the difference in this case is that there no longer seems to be any loose plan—or any real commitment from developers—to actually build or revitalize anything if this streetcar extension goes in. We already have new apartment buildings and storefronts that they can’t fill. Whatever plans supposedly justified the project have essentially fallen apart.
Montgomery Park isn’t Siberia. It’s already served by existing roads and bus lines. I worked there for several years and during its heyday that area was humming and MP was at capacity - no one ever complained about not being able to access it. Does forcing a streetcar meaningfully improve that area? For millions of dollars and very little added coverage, I would argue it does not. Homeless overnight shelter inhabitants seem to be the primary riders of the Northrup line as it is, since the city also refuses to meaningfully address public transportation safety.
I would hope voters here are maybe finally tired of a city government that behaves as though our tax dollars are unlimited while simultaneously claiming there’s “no money” for basic services like road repair, policing, and park maintenance. The level of financial liberty being taken—especially given how little clout the city has left to attract new business or keep its residents within county lines—is completely out of proportion to reality. This entire plan feels not only disconnected from what the “people” want, it feels disconnected from having any chance at success.
"We already have new apartment buildings and storefronts that they can’t fill. Whatever plans supposedly justified the project have essentially fallen apart."
I am a Realtor, so admittedly my comments come from both a place of educated business and prejudice. I'll try to keep the latter in check.
*The demand for new urban residential projects has stumbled a bit, with a recent population exodus out of Multnomah County. Still, all projections (see HBA for example) want to suggest that we are chronically short of apartments to meet current and projected demands. (Forget that the City wants increased density, to increase property tax rolls and income.) This shortage is due, in part, to a loss of skilled construction laborers, a sharp increase in the cost of building goods (due to shortages and tariffs), a current shortage of some building materials (due to tariffs), a higher cost of interim construction financing, a shortage of take-out lenders willing to assume the finished project when completed and certainly some continued concerns about existing core area vacancy rates. And then, let us not get started on the general developer disdain for the City's "work-at-home" plans examination and permitting process, the Draconian and restrictive construction codes, the exorbitant cost of system connections and the unilateral demand for a percentage of all units to become affordable housing. These all exacerbate the timing of development plans too.
*And while residential units are allowed in these zones, it must be with a mix of commercial - and commercial property tenancy in the core area has been extremely slow to recover. (The Oregonian blocks is a fine example. Again, so is the Joe's Cellar development sitting, what, 6-7 years dormant?) With Pearl and Slabtown projects largely completed and competing for tenants, holding back on adding new units in NW Portland is prudent. I might add that it remains to be seen whether mixed residential properties will draw tenancy built at the very edge of NW Portland, slammed against the decaying industrial sanctuary north of Nicolai. The former lure to live in the alphabet blocks may not really extend to this outer edge. Do we know this to be certain?
*When investors have, what was it $33mil-$34mil?, invested in the Esco properties, they are not going to allow it to "fall apart." They will wisely do as much due diligence (pre-construction) planning as they can without investing a lot of construction dollars into the project until the market for construction and leasing or sales, improves. They've got a $250,000 engineering feasibility study publicly funded, so they are moving forward with results they want to achieve, without costing them much. Equally, Menashe's company can focus on improving tenancy in a nearly vacant office building for the short term, while making plans for the development of the outlying properties adjacent the main building.
I don't see anything fallen apart. Rather things are proceeding slower than they may have wished, but proceeding all the same.
"Montgomery Park isn’t Siberia."
*JW, I remember it well and concur. The existing office building itself seemed to be able to handle daily demands effortlessly. This was as the Naito's and their traffic engineers envisioned it.
*However, as the article stated, the core development area (which is three giant tracts as I previously described) are expected to add 2,000 new households. That's in addition to all the added commercial space that you should expect will be developed - as required of the zoning code. So ignoring the existing return of M Park offices to vibrant tenancy - which the arterials can handle - we are talking about over 5 acres of developable land just on the M Park block located between 26th and 27th. That can be expected to become thousands of feet of leasable office space. The combined Esco tract is over 15 acres of land that must, by zoning law, also contain a substantial blend of office floors. Add to that at least two more acres in the tract owned by Cairn Pacific and you must now consider that traffic densities occurring from development of these 20 acres - much which must be commercial - will, if their leasing plans are fruitful, absolutely sky-rocket in excess of the former M Park site uses. Just like Bill and Sam, these investors are seeing to it that the City serves their proposed properties with increased mass transit services, partially funded with public dollars.
"I would hope voters here are maybe finally tired of a city government that behaves as though our tax dollars are unlimited while simultaneously claiming there’s “no money” for basic services like road repair, policing, and park maintenance."
Here the sad difference between us is that I no longer have faith in "the voters." The majority are not sufficiently educated to understand, by example, what a Local Improvement District is or how it operates. They are largely uninformed (as their ignorance is needed for developers and City to get changes past them.) They are largely ignorant and uninformed because life priorities do not allow them time to educate themselves and become informed. And they are distracted by both the demands of daily life and their own personal wants and needs - which they rarely see as jeopardized by these unknown or poorly understood events. The satirical pessimist in me simply sees that for change to occur, the powerful must keep the silent majority in the dark. And the realist in me simply sees that daily struggle of the silent majority does not provide them time or sufficient worry, to seek to make a difference.
As he well knows, I appreciate all Allan does to illuminate these things. But, I have very little faith that it can result in significantly altering the plans of the rich and powerful. I do not think the burdensome impact these future developments will have on the local community is sufficient to raise a silent majority reaction that could force, by public opinion, these developments be curtailed or substantially altered. It would appear the vast majority of voters will be unaffected by it all.
Thanks to all who commented. The discussion has been broadened considerably, giving readers/citizens a better understanding of how things work--and possibly a better chance to influence their community.
If the goal is to move people, why not work with Tri-Met to create a new bus line that follows where the tracks would be laid? Seems less expensive and more flexible. I ride the street car on a regular basis between PSU area and Good Sam and would prefer if it was a bus route. It always seems like the street car was nothing more than nostalgia for the past and a way for tourists to get around. As a regular mode of public transport, the street car is not very reliable.
Buses are indeed more flexible, especially as development occurs. What happens if we destroy traffic on NW 23rd (double tracking might be a lot worse than the potholes, fwiw) and nothing gets developed for years and years, or else it proceeeds in a different manner than predicted, resulting in no need for frequent streetcar transit?
As a lifelong "student" of rail transit, I judge the plan to be sound. Rail transit is often built before housing and shopping, as an attractor. Rail systems are attractive: 60% of Minneapolis riders simpley leave their cars home; they are new to transit. A new bus line, even rapid, is favorec, but only because of low initial costs. Nobody exults at a new bus. Our original Streetcar was part of the Pearl, and I think developer funds helped. It also minimzed costs by not acceepting any Federal funds, enabling purchase of inexpensive, standard Inekon Czech light rail vehicles - ones to be replaced, tho' electric rail vehicles never wear out! Similarly, developers paid for the Max extension to the airport. Today, a ride on the southern Denver Light rail ends in desert, with rapid, dense development seen nearby. In NYC, the el extended into farrm land that later became densely populated Queens. As to the sorry, second world, condition of NW 23rd pavement, we have lived here 20 years, and the plan is always just around the corner. Postponing it, or doing it now and installing the rail before other infrastructure will minimize costs. As to the our new buy-American streetcars, readers should be aware of their weight, fully 7 TONS heavier than our originals. So much for CO2 minimization...