Streetcar to nowhere

Montgomery Park extension leaves NW 23rd—and residents—stuck in the potholes

Portland is preparing to sink nearly $200 million into the Montgomery Park streetcar extension—another glossy transportation project marketed as “transformational.” But beneath the glossy renderings lies a familiar story: deferred maintenance weaponized as political leverage, costs guaranteed to explode and ridership projections based on fantasy rather than fact.

The Northwest Examiner’s recent reporting reveals a project advancing quietly through bureaucratic channels while fundamental questions go unanswered.

NW 23rd: A major corridor held hostage

Residents navigating NW 23rd Avenue between Northrup and Thurman know the street’s condition firsthand. Potholes pockmark the pavement. Potholed crosswalks have become unsafe, especially for seniors and people with physical or visual impairment. Blocks that should serve as a neighborhood backbone have devolved into a maintenance embarrassment.

Here’s the part PBOT doesn’t advertise:

During my 2024 city council campaign, a senior Portland Bureau of Transportation official told me outright: The bureau will not repair NW 23rd between Northrup and Thurman until the streetcar goes in.

Not “can’t.” Not “insufficient funds.” Won’t.

One of the city’s premier commercial corridors—lined with small businesses that survived a pandemic—is now a patchwork of potholes and broken pavement. This isn’t neglect. It’s strategy. It’s becoming clearer by the day to Northwest residents that PBOT is holding NW 23rd hostage to manufacture political pressure in support of the extension. Want a safe, drivable and walkable street? Pay $190 million for a streetcar. Otherwise, keep dodging potholes.

This isn’t planning. It’s coercion.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting that PBOT completely reconstruct the six-block section of NW 23^rd but rather do what is often done in such situations — apply a thin asphalt overlay after surface preparation.

Research indicates that, “for a typical U.S. city, repaving (mill and overlay) a quarter mile of a standard two-lane blacktop street usually falls in the rough range of about $70,000 to $300,000 depending heavily on width, depth, and local costs.”

So let’s say it would cost $500,000 to fix seven blocks of NW 23^rd until the streetcar extension is ready for construction—years off under the best of circumstances. It seems to me that’s a small price to pay for fixing a major neighborhood street so that it and its crosswalks are safe for all users.

The true cost of wishful thinking

The Examiner reports a $190 million budget for 0.65 miles of track—an astonishing $292 million per mile.

And the history of cost estimates for Oregon transportation projects shows this is the starting bid, not the final price:

• Columbia River Crossing: Started at $1.3 billion, ballooned past $3 billion before cancellation

• Interstate Bridge Replacement: Nearly doubled from $4.8 billion (2020) to $10 billion (2024)

• Rose Quarter Freeway Expansion: Jumped from $700 million to $2 billion in just a few years

The pattern is clear: lowball the number to get approval, inflate it later, repeat.

A final price tag of $300 million is therefore quite probable based upon recent history.

Local homeowners and taxpayers left holding the bag

Depending on federal funding (20-50% if it materializes), local sources will be on the hook for $60-$150 million—or more. That means property owners paying through expanded Local Improvement Districts; raiding already starved maintenance budgets; and delaying basic safety projects.

As Northwest District Association President Todd Zarnitz has noted, homeowners are being asked to finance infrastructure whose primary beneficiaries are developers holding vacant land.

Ridership modeling unmoored from reality

Portland Streetcar Executive Director Dan Bower says ridership projections remain unchanged since the collapse of the proposed development because they’re “modeled on adopted zoning”—a polite way of saying: ignore market reality.

Yet the facts on the ground are stark:

• Montgomery Park sold for 13% of its former price.

• The 2,000-unit housing vision vanished.

• No developer has stepped forward.

• The 23-acre ESCO site has sat empty for seven years.

• No financing exists for any of it.

Yet the City still claims 3,300 new daily riders—a 60% increase—based on theoretical households and imaginary jobs. These are not projections; they’re fantasies masquerading as planning.

A pattern Portland can no longer afford

The Montgomery Park extension epitomizes Portland’s transportation dysfunction: basic maintenance held hostage; initial cost estimates bearing no resemblance to reality; ridership projections ignoring facts; and public input treated as procedural theater.

The “locally preferred option” won’t change regardless of what citizens say and has sailed through Metro and City Council regardless of community concerns. RFPs and federal grant applications are already moving forward.

Adding insult to injury, the Examiner reported that PBOT explained recent delays in citizen engagement to “unforeseen procurement delays at the city” and promised email updates about every three months. Huh? That’s citizen engagement?

Meanwhile, Northwest Portland is left with crumbling streets, looming LID assessments and a project justified by development that shows no signs of materializing.

The streetcar may get built. But for what purpose, at what price, and benefiting whom? Until PBOT and Portland Streetcar can answer those questions honestly, NW 23rd will continue to crumble—held hostage to a boondoggle.

Bob Weinstein is a former mayor of Ketchikan, Alaska, and a retired teacher. He ran for Portland City Council District 4 in 2024.