Thank you for this intelligent and thorough examination of the Keller vs PSU auditorium issue. Leads one to question what exactly the mission of the Hunden Partners study.
Much like a radiologist instructed to look for cancer on a CT scan while omitting other potential medical problems that are in plain sight, this consulting firm was presumably tasked with evaluating the merits of Keller versus a new venue at PSU and was not encouraged to consider that neither of these two venues is needed.
Kurt, this has been an enlightening series. I’d be interested in your thoughts on the success of the Reser. It’s not downtown but the audience has substantial overlap.
I am admittedly weighing in on this with incomplete homework, but this is a very substantive decision for Portland's fiscal health, for the future of Downtown and for Cultural and Art and Music Entertainment in the City of Portland generally. We need a real market study, not the one we got.
The New AEG facility is being built for flexible seating and boasts a capacity 0f 4,250 but with 2,000 seats. Live Nation says its capacity is 3,500, but with 1,280 seats. Both emphasize "flexibility". What does this mean exactly? Both a focusing on music and entertainment audiences primarily, where people like to get up and dance. That does not work too well in the Schnitzer and the Keller, as those of us who have seen live music there. They work for the symphony, the opera and musical plays, where comfortable seating and great acoustics are paramount. We also don't have a good handle on the demand side of the equation. It is clear that the audience for live Broadway musicals is both broad and stable, judging from the relative success of the Keller. Quantify it. I am not sure what projections are for the Opera, Symphony and Literary Arts and Political and Cultural presentations are but we attend many and many are sold out at the Schnitz. Some would probably be better suited for the Newmark. The point is, the City of Portland paid for a supply and demand analysis. It did not get and one. What it got was something that appeared designed to allow it to escape the bad decision it made when it approved both the PSU Facility band the Keller renovation without really factoring in other strategies to solve the problem. It is also important to look for motivations. PSU clearly wants to solidify its own financial success. Enrollment is down and it is unclear if it has solved its own "learn from home" demands from students. Last I heard, they were trying to find strategies to get students back to class. It would be helpful for the public to better understand how they intend to use and support the facility. I seems to me there are a number of missing pieces which Kurt's pieces have help to bubble to the surface.
It is also worth remembering the elephant in the room; public safety in Portland's Central City. Nobody is addressing that head on, especially our City Council. The success of any of these venues, who operate mostly in the evening and who attract audiences from all over the larger Metro area, depend upon safe public transport and being able to park and dine without fear of vandalism. That goes for attendees at rock concerts, the symphony or opera or protests and irrespective of demographic. Multnomah County and Portland's failure to address the behavioral health issues downtown and the related public safety issues, real and perceived, is holding back Portland's recovery.
Thanks for the Northwest Examiner for keeping a forum for debate going and to Kurt for helping to educate our voters on the issues. I have requested that the Mayor help outline the facts, present his strategy for the Portland Five, now that the City will be assuming responsibility for it from Metro, and help frame the choice for voters.
Thank you, Richard. And to help with that, let me address a few things too. To begin, the big problem is where to house Broadway Across America. That is truly the big, unspoken elephant here. Folks at the Oregon Symphony believe that the Schnitzer cannot host them during any Keller remodel or new PSU build phase. They claim it's a lack of wing and set/prop storage space to work with their bus/truck productions. I have no clue if that's true or merely wishful thinking. As for the new AEG and LIVE NATIONS venues, it will have to be seen whether either could handle the BAA audiences (even if they wanted to). And according to the City's ticket records, BAA is averaging 2500-2800 seats sold per KELLER performance - so they definitely have a need for a replacement space in excess of 2,000 fixed seats. That doesn't necessarily mean that one or both of these venues are incapable of providing flex seating to bring them up to 2,500+ seats. I have no clue, but would want to find out.
And there still is the issue of exactly how bad is it, if BAA simply has to not book shows in Portland for 1.5-2 years while KELLER is remodeled? I am not altogether certain how spending $350mil+ on a PSU venue to accommodate that lone lessee pencils out as a value to the citizens of the city. It would mean losing their annual show package for 1-2 years, but they would certainly return the moment the KELLER was up an running again. How big a loss is this really, in the scheme of things? Perhaps those 15,000 BAA patrons per 6 night event could attend some local theater and help all of them who are desperately struggling.
And then there is this. Take a look at Jan-June 2025 ticket sales at the KELLER that are not multiple performance runs - but single events. Sure, we have some 3-6 night events, from about 3-4 producers, but the vast majority of dates were these. Portland Opera ran at the KELLER just 4 days, OBT for 4 days too. You can count the number of other productions on one hand - averaging 58% total tenancy.
Lunar New Year Celebration / Chinese Friendship Association Chinese Friendship Association Non-Profit 79032 2/1/25 7:30PM 1,179 seats sold $23.20-$99.00
Chris D'Elia / Icon Entertainment Group LLC Icon Entertainment Group LLC Commercial 81948 3/28/25 8:00PM 1,050 seats sold
Rock Orchestra Innovation Arts & Entertainment Commercial 81937 4/17/25 8:00PM 1,391 seats sold $26.70-$143.8
Diana Krall Live Nation Commercial 82367 5/19/25 8:00PM 1442 seats sold $49.50-$249.50
Elvis Costello Live Nation Commercial 82772 6/13/25 8:00PM 2652 seats sold $39.50-$245.00
Naruto the Symphonic Experience MagicSpace Entertainment Commercial 81753 4/5/25 7:30PM 1,280 seats sold $29.50-$107.50
The Wiggles The Wiggles Live USA Commercial 81414 6/4/25 6:00PM 1,388 seats sold $25.00-$60.00+VI
Stavros Halkia / True West True West Commercial 81353 3/1/25 7:00PM 2,728 seats sold $39.00-$75.50
Jason Isbell True West Commercial 80911 5/20/25 8:00PM 2543 seats sold $49.50-$150.0
What you see in this list is that only 6 of 15 needed such a big venue. The majority could easily be in smaller venues - like AEG and LIVE NATIONS. So exactly how desperate are they to get into a 3,000 seat house? Again, let's not kid ourselves, not all KELLER tenants are without other options. I am guessing that BAA and OBT are the lone producers severely impacted during a KELLER remodel shut down. The rest? Not much chance of it. But, should the City take on $350mil+ in debt, ultimately paid by taxpayers, to make BAA and OBT and maybe Shen Yun happy? Or do we let them pivot for 1-2 years while we upgrade the KELLER again?
Our City and County politicians need to learn to live within their means. We've spent our treasure on NOT solving the drug addiction and mental health crises, all the while cloaking it with Portland Values™ virtue signaling. We've neglected infrastructure and public safety through decades of persistent underfunding when times were good, and now we are going to embark on a $350 million dollar spending spree to build this PSU venue when tax receipts will likely plummet and inflation is taking off again? Only in Portlandia.
I sincerely appreciate the hard work you've done to to make this otherwise opaque information (to most of us) clearer and understandable. Thank you!!
I fear that too many members of Portland City Council would think that standing outside a restaurant, making a huge racket and yelling "No foie gras!" as the perfect entertainment for an evening.
This is a compelling and meticulously researched case against a major public expenditure that, by the author's own analysis, risks straining already stressed budgets while solving a problem the private market may already be solving on its own.
Ordinarily a series of this kind would conclude with a call to action. Yet what remains unclear after seven installments is what readers are expected to do with this information, and whether there is still a point in the decision process where public pressure could make a difference.
Without that, the series risks becoming an excellent epitaph rather than a preventive intervention. That was not the objective, surely.
The evidence assembled here — 58% tenancy, only 6 of 15 single events actually requiring a 3,000-seat house, and essentially two tenants driving the case for $350M in public debt — points fairly clearly in one direction: renovate the Keller, forgo the PSU project, and let the private market fill whatever gaps remain. Right?
Thank you for this intelligent and thorough examination of the Keller vs PSU auditorium issue. Leads one to question what exactly the mission of the Hunden Partners study.
Or who's payroll they are on.
Much like a radiologist instructed to look for cancer on a CT scan while omitting other potential medical problems that are in plain sight, this consulting firm was presumably tasked with evaluating the merits of Keller versus a new venue at PSU and was not encouraged to consider that neither of these two venues is needed.
Kurt, this has been an enlightening series. I’d be interested in your thoughts on the success of the Reser. It’s not downtown but the audience has substantial overlap.
I am admittedly weighing in on this with incomplete homework, but this is a very substantive decision for Portland's fiscal health, for the future of Downtown and for Cultural and Art and Music Entertainment in the City of Portland generally. We need a real market study, not the one we got.
The New AEG facility is being built for flexible seating and boasts a capacity 0f 4,250 but with 2,000 seats. Live Nation says its capacity is 3,500, but with 1,280 seats. Both emphasize "flexibility". What does this mean exactly? Both a focusing on music and entertainment audiences primarily, where people like to get up and dance. That does not work too well in the Schnitzer and the Keller, as those of us who have seen live music there. They work for the symphony, the opera and musical plays, where comfortable seating and great acoustics are paramount. We also don't have a good handle on the demand side of the equation. It is clear that the audience for live Broadway musicals is both broad and stable, judging from the relative success of the Keller. Quantify it. I am not sure what projections are for the Opera, Symphony and Literary Arts and Political and Cultural presentations are but we attend many and many are sold out at the Schnitz. Some would probably be better suited for the Newmark. The point is, the City of Portland paid for a supply and demand analysis. It did not get and one. What it got was something that appeared designed to allow it to escape the bad decision it made when it approved both the PSU Facility band the Keller renovation without really factoring in other strategies to solve the problem. It is also important to look for motivations. PSU clearly wants to solidify its own financial success. Enrollment is down and it is unclear if it has solved its own "learn from home" demands from students. Last I heard, they were trying to find strategies to get students back to class. It would be helpful for the public to better understand how they intend to use and support the facility. I seems to me there are a number of missing pieces which Kurt's pieces have help to bubble to the surface.
It is also worth remembering the elephant in the room; public safety in Portland's Central City. Nobody is addressing that head on, especially our City Council. The success of any of these venues, who operate mostly in the evening and who attract audiences from all over the larger Metro area, depend upon safe public transport and being able to park and dine without fear of vandalism. That goes for attendees at rock concerts, the symphony or opera or protests and irrespective of demographic. Multnomah County and Portland's failure to address the behavioral health issues downtown and the related public safety issues, real and perceived, is holding back Portland's recovery.
Thanks for the Northwest Examiner for keeping a forum for debate going and to Kurt for helping to educate our voters on the issues. I have requested that the Mayor help outline the facts, present his strategy for the Portland Five, now that the City will be assuming responsibility for it from Metro, and help frame the choice for voters.
Thank you, Richard. And to help with that, let me address a few things too. To begin, the big problem is where to house Broadway Across America. That is truly the big, unspoken elephant here. Folks at the Oregon Symphony believe that the Schnitzer cannot host them during any Keller remodel or new PSU build phase. They claim it's a lack of wing and set/prop storage space to work with their bus/truck productions. I have no clue if that's true or merely wishful thinking. As for the new AEG and LIVE NATIONS venues, it will have to be seen whether either could handle the BAA audiences (even if they wanted to). And according to the City's ticket records, BAA is averaging 2500-2800 seats sold per KELLER performance - so they definitely have a need for a replacement space in excess of 2,000 fixed seats. That doesn't necessarily mean that one or both of these venues are incapable of providing flex seating to bring them up to 2,500+ seats. I have no clue, but would want to find out.
And there still is the issue of exactly how bad is it, if BAA simply has to not book shows in Portland for 1.5-2 years while KELLER is remodeled? I am not altogether certain how spending $350mil+ on a PSU venue to accommodate that lone lessee pencils out as a value to the citizens of the city. It would mean losing their annual show package for 1-2 years, but they would certainly return the moment the KELLER was up an running again. How big a loss is this really, in the scheme of things? Perhaps those 15,000 BAA patrons per 6 night event could attend some local theater and help all of them who are desperately struggling.
And then there is this. Take a look at Jan-June 2025 ticket sales at the KELLER that are not multiple performance runs - but single events. Sure, we have some 3-6 night events, from about 3-4 producers, but the vast majority of dates were these. Portland Opera ran at the KELLER just 4 days, OBT for 4 days too. You can count the number of other productions on one hand - averaging 58% total tenancy.
Lunar New Year Celebration / Chinese Friendship Association Chinese Friendship Association Non-Profit 79032 2/1/25 7:30PM 1,179 seats sold $23.20-$99.00
Chris D'Elia / Icon Entertainment Group LLC Icon Entertainment Group LLC Commercial 81948 3/28/25 8:00PM 1,050 seats sold
Rock Orchestra Innovation Arts & Entertainment Commercial 81937 4/17/25 8:00PM 1,391 seats sold $26.70-$143.8
Diana Krall Live Nation Commercial 82367 5/19/25 8:00PM 1442 seats sold $49.50-$249.50
Elvis Costello Live Nation Commercial 82772 6/13/25 8:00PM 2652 seats sold $39.50-$245.00
Naruto the Symphonic Experience MagicSpace Entertainment Commercial 81753 4/5/25 7:30PM 1,280 seats sold $29.50-$107.50
Dream Theater / Mammoth NW Mammoth NW Commercial 81051 2/28/25 8:00PM 1,445 seats sold $41.75-$264.47
David Gray / Monqui Presents Monqui Presents Commercial 80954 2/6/25 7:30PM 1,040 seats sold $46.00-$239.00
Ralph Barbosa & Rene Vaca Outback Presents Commercial 83073 4/3/25 7:00PM 2,523 seats sold $27.50-$133.45
Pretty Guardian Sailor Moon: The Super Live / Portland'5 Presents Portland'5 Presents Promoted / Co-promoted 82656 3/29/25 8:00PM 2,597 seats sold $45.00-$120.00
RAIN - A Tribute to the Beatles Portland'5 Presents Promoted / Co-promoted 81126 4/23/25 7:00PM 1,194 seats sold $5.00-$75.00
TEDx Portland TEDx Portland Non-profit 79016 4/26/25 9:25AM 2,429 seats sold $79.00-$189.
The Wiggles The Wiggles Live USA Commercial 81414 6/4/25 6:00PM 1,388 seats sold $25.00-$60.00+VI
Stavros Halkia / True West True West Commercial 81353 3/1/25 7:00PM 2,728 seats sold $39.00-$75.50
Jason Isbell True West Commercial 80911 5/20/25 8:00PM 2543 seats sold $49.50-$150.0
What you see in this list is that only 6 of 15 needed such a big venue. The majority could easily be in smaller venues - like AEG and LIVE NATIONS. So exactly how desperate are they to get into a 3,000 seat house? Again, let's not kid ourselves, not all KELLER tenants are without other options. I am guessing that BAA and OBT are the lone producers severely impacted during a KELLER remodel shut down. The rest? Not much chance of it. But, should the City take on $350mil+ in debt, ultimately paid by taxpayers, to make BAA and OBT and maybe Shen Yun happy? Or do we let them pivot for 1-2 years while we upgrade the KELLER again?
Our City and County politicians need to learn to live within their means. We've spent our treasure on NOT solving the drug addiction and mental health crises, all the while cloaking it with Portland Values™ virtue signaling. We've neglected infrastructure and public safety through decades of persistent underfunding when times were good, and now we are going to embark on a $350 million dollar spending spree to build this PSU venue when tax receipts will likely plummet and inflation is taking off again? Only in Portlandia.
I sincerely appreciate the hard work you've done to to make this otherwise opaque information (to most of us) clearer and understandable. Thank you!!
I fear that too many members of Portland City Council would think that standing outside a restaurant, making a huge racket and yelling "No foie gras!" as the perfect entertainment for an evening.
This is a compelling and meticulously researched case against a major public expenditure that, by the author's own analysis, risks straining already stressed budgets while solving a problem the private market may already be solving on its own.
Ordinarily a series of this kind would conclude with a call to action. Yet what remains unclear after seven installments is what readers are expected to do with this information, and whether there is still a point in the decision process where public pressure could make a difference.
Without that, the series risks becoming an excellent epitaph rather than a preventive intervention. That was not the objective, surely.
The evidence assembled here — 58% tenancy, only 6 of 15 single events actually requiring a 3,000-seat house, and essentially two tenants driving the case for $350M in public debt — points fairly clearly in one direction: renovate the Keller, forgo the PSU project, and let the private market fill whatever gaps remain. Right?