If you build it ... they still won't come

Part V: Two private theaters could change everything

Will Live Nation continue to rent from the city when it has its own Portland auditorium?

by Kurt Misar

In 2025, METRO returned Portland’5 management to the city effective 2027—without emphasizing that theater finances will no longer be subsidized by Metro’s broader budget. The city must now maximize rentals, retain earnings, and fund capital upgrades. The city’s Workgroup stated goals—expanded usage, stronger arts partnerships, improved booking policies—ultimately depend on one thing: increasing rental revenue.

In this series, I withheld an important point so readers could first understand the operating realities of these five city-owned venues. I reviewed rental calendars over several months to assess vacancy, usage, and lease activity to determine whether each venue was maximizing income potential. I had no access to profit-and-loss statements, so this analysis addresses market demand—not accounting performance.

The question was simple: Is there sufficient producer demand to justify the city owning and operating five stages—let alone building a sixth?

The Keller (roughly 3,000 seats) appears to be the most utilized at 80-85% of rental capacity, almost entirely dependent on a single anchor tenant. With a minimum two-year retrofit closure looming, the city stands to lose that anchor to Portland State University, which is proposing its own 3,000-seat theater on its campus.

That proposal sidesteps an obvious option: transferring the anchor to the roughly 3,000-seat Schnitzer, which currently operates near 75% capacity. Of Schnitzer’s remaining rentals, approximately 25% come from Live Nation and AEG, with another 25% from outside producers.

As for the three other Portland’5 stages next door in Hatfield Hall, the Newmark, currently near 50% capacity, relies on many of these same outside producers, along with short-term local rentals. The Winningstad and Brunish operate well under 50% capacity and remain heavily dependent on a single local anchor. These figures suggest insufficient market demand to support additional theater space. The objective appears less about expanding arts access and more about replacing The Keller during its closure.

I do not know why the Schnitzer cannot serve as a temporary home for Broadway Across America. The producers may object to logistics or technical limitations, but it is not the only alternative 3,000-seat venue in Portland—because two more are about to open.

Now for the withheld point. It matters because it reframes how the city presents its development strategy.

Live Nation and AEG

Live Nation is constructing a privately owned 1,200-1,500 seat venue on Southeast Water Avenue. AEG, partnering with Monqui Presents, is building a 2,000–4,250-seat venue at Lloyd Center. Both open before any potential Keller closure. Both will require aggressive booking to recoup construction costs. The city already struggles to fill its existing venues. Soon it will compete with two new private operators seeking many of the same touring acts.

Before speculating about long-term market fragmentation, consider the immediate impact. As producers developing touring acts, Live Nation and AEG are likely to shift many of their current Schnitzer and Newmark bookings into their own facilities. That accounts for roughly 25% of Schnitzer’s current rental activity—potentially pushing annual vacancy there toward 50%—with similar effects at the Newmark. At that level, sustained profitability becomes doubtful.

Ironically, those losses could free space at the Schnitzer to absorb Broadway Across America dates displaced from the Keller.

Still, market behavior is never perfectly predictable. Private operators will first prioritize their own productions—primarily music and comedy—but they will also seek bookings from the same national and regional independent producers who historically rent the Schnitzer, Newmark and Winningstad. The city does not want to lose the Broadway Across America business, but is that likely?

Traditionally, BAA occupies municipal theaters designed for touring musicals. It is unclear whether they envision a future in privately owned venues primarily oriented toward pop, rock, country and national comics—but financial incentives can change preferences quickly. A sufficiently favorable deal from a new operator could undercut city pricing and shift the calculus overnight. And each will offer seating capacities in excess of The Keller Auditorium.

BAA maintains strong subscription sales and deep market presence in Portland. If the stage product remains identical, would a venue shift affect ticket demand? And if so, how would relocation to a PSU-based facility differ?

In the next article, we will examine this, including how government seems to distort and misrepresent market realities to achieve broader objectives.Part I - The Keller Auditorium

Part II - Arlene Schnitzer Concert Hall

Part III - Newmark Theater

Part IV - Winningstad and Brunish theaters

Part V – Live Nation and AEG

Part VI – The Finite Market Problem

Part VII - The Narrative and the Myth of Scarcity

Kurt Misar is a part-time theater artist who has worked in banking, commercial real estate management and development, commercial leasing and residential sales. He is an associate broker with Capstone Real Estate Services and a resident of Goose Hollow.